Kinerja APBN 2025 tidak sesuai harapan. Realisasi pendapatan pada APBN Tahun 2025 mengalami shortfall atau turun 3,3% dibandingkan tahun sebelumnya. Penerimaan pajak mengalami penurunan hingga mencapai 14% dibandingkan dengan tahun sebelumnya atau hanya terealisasikan 77%. Kondisi ini perlu menjadi alarm adanya potensi penurunan daya beli pada masyarakat.

This article argues that across two presidential terms, Donald Trump has pursued a structurally predictable pattern of coercive trade and geopolitical escalation followed by market-induced capitulation. Drawing on a comprehensive chronological dataset spanning March 2018 through March 2026, the analysis identifies a five-phase behavioral cycle whose trigger hierarchy — with sovereign bond market dislocation at its apex — has remained empirically consistent despite dramatic changes in policy scale and global context. This revised edition integrates a formal game-theoretic framework and eleven analytical matrices that formalize the strategic logic underlying each phase of the cycle. Trump's behavior is modeled as a signaling game with incomplete information: adversaries must infer whether his threats are credible 'Hawk' commitments or time-limited 'Bluster,' while Trump exploits ambiguity to maximize coercive leverage without sustaining its costs. The shortening of the capitulation cycle from forty-five days in 2018 to six hours in April 2025 represents, in game-theoretic terms, an accelerating collapse of the separating equilibrium that sustained threat credibility. This analysis applies the same framework to Operation Epic Fury, the US military campaign against Iran launched on February 28, 2026, to generate a structured predictive assessment of how and when Trump will seek to end that war.

This article argues that across two presidential terms, Donald Trump has pursued a structurally predictable pattern of coercive trade and geopolitical escalation followed by market-induced capitulation. Drawing on a comprehensive chronological dataset spanning March 2018 through March 2026, the analysis identifies a five-phase behavioral cycle whose trigger hierarchy — with sovereign bond market dislocation at its apex — has remained empirically consistent despite dramatic changes in policy scale and global context. This revised edition integrates a formal game-theoretic framework and eleven analytical matrices that formalize the strategic logic underlying each phase of the cycle. Trump's behavior is modeled as a signaling game with incomplete information: adversaries must infer whether his threats are credible 'Hawk' commitments or time-limited 'Bluster,' while Trump exploits ambiguity to maximize coercive leverage without sustaining its costs. The shortening of the capitulation cycle from forty-five days in 2018 to six hours in April 2025 represents, in game-theoretic terms, an accelerating collapse of the separating equilibrium that sustained threat credibility. This analysis applies the same framework to Operation Epic Fury, the US military campaign against Iran launched on February 28, 2026, to generate a structured predictive assessment of how and when Trump will seek to end that war.

Iran's armed forces are at a critical inflection point: degraded by consecutive US-Israeli strikes (June 2025 & 28 Feb 2026), yet retaining residual capacity for asymmetric retaliation and strategic reconstitution. Prior to current hostilities, Iran ranked 16th globally in military power with ~610,000 active troops and 350,000 reserves.

This strategic assessment provides a comprehensive evaluation of the military capabilities of the Islamic Republic of Iran as of March 2026, a period of acute crisis following the joint US-Israeli military strikes initiated on 28 February 2026 (Operation Epic Fury / Operation Roaring Lion). Iran’s armed forces are at a critical inflection point: degraded by consecutive rounds of strikes in June 2025 and February 2026, yet retaining residual capacity for asymmetric retaliation and strategic reconstitution.

This assessment is a structured doctrinal wargame scenario produced for strategic intelligence analytical purposes. It draws on open-source military doctrine, unclassified force posture data, and historical precedent from Operation Desert Storm (1991) and Operation Iraqi Freedom (2003). It does not advocate for military action. It evaluates operational feasibility, strategic constraints, and likely outcomes of a hypothetical US-led ground invasion aimed at seizing strategic locations inside Iran.

This assessment is a structured doctrinal wargame scenario produced for strategic intelligence analytical purposes. It draws on open-source military doctrine, unclassified force posture data, and historical precedent from Operation Desert Storm (1991) and Operation Iraqi Freedom (2003). It does not advocate for military action. It evaluates operational feasibility, strategic constraints, and likely outcomes of a hypothetical US-led ground invasion aimed at seizing strategic locations inside Iran.

The anarchic structure of the international system compels great powers to maximize relative power. The entire trajectory of U.S. military operations since 1776 is explicable through this lens—the U.S. has acted as a regional hegemon in the Western Hemisphere and an offshore balancer in Eurasia, using military force to prevent peer competitors in every era.

Since 1776, the United States has conducted 247+ documented military operations against sovereign states—yet formally declared war only five times covering eleven declarations. The Congressional Research Service records hundreds of instances of armed forces deployed abroad. Scholar Lindsey O’Rourke’s dataset reveals 64 covert regime change attempts during the Cold War alone, compared to only 6 overt interventions—a ratio of 10:1. Dov Levin documented U.S. intervention in 81 foreign elections between 1946 and 2000. Since 1945, the U.S. has intervened militarily in at least 96 countries.

This document analyzes the full inventory of U.S. military operations through the theoretical lens of offensive realism, drawing on John Mearsheimer’s The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, Graham Allison’s Thucydides Trap framework, and Paul Kennedy’s The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers thesis on imperial overstretch.

US-ISRAEL STRIKE PACKAGE
Operation Epic Fury (US) + Roaring Lion (Israel) Targets: Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, Kermanshah Supreme leader compound struck (7 confirmed missiles) Trump: ‘major combat operations’ + regime change call Multi-day sustained campaign planned (not single strike)

IRANIAN RETALIATION
Unprecedented simultaneous strikes on ALL US Gulf bases Al Udeid (Qatar), Ali Al Salem (Kuwait), Al Dhafra (UAE), 5th Fleet (Bahrain) Ballistic missiles toward Israel (Tel Aviv, Haifa, Jerusalem) Houthis announce Red Sea shipping attack resumption IRGC: ‘No red lines after this aggression’